Bonding curve market cap, supply sold, and the 85.01 SOL it takes to graduate
Pump.fun does not price a token by what people paid for it. It prices the token from a formula, and the formula is already running before the first buyer arrives.
Every new token opens with two numbers written into its bonding curve account: 30 virtual SOL and 1,073,000,000 virtual tokens. Neither is real. Nobody deposited that SOL and nobody holds those tokens. They fix the opening price at 30 divided by 1,073,000,000, which is 0.000000028 SOL per token. Across the billion-token supply that is 27.96 SOL of market cap, $-- at the moment, on a curve nobody has touched.
A buy moves both reserves at once. SOL enters, the product of the two reserves stays constant, the token reserve drops to whatever preserves it, and the buyer takes the difference. Price is always the ratio between the reserves. No order book, no counterparty, no way to buy below the curve.
Every row below is fixed by the program except the dollar column, which follows the live SOL price. The middle column is the share of total supply that has left the curve.
Read down the supply column and the shape becomes obvious. Half the supply is gone by 30 SOL, a third of the way to graduation in money terms. By 50 SOL two thirds has been distributed. The last stretch moves a lot of money and very few tokens.
Three SOL into an empty curve returns 97.5 million tokens, 9.75 percent of the entire supply.
The 15 SOL that carry a token from 70 SOL to graduation return 42 million tokens, 4.2 percent. Five times the money, under half the tokens. Nothing changed except position on the curve.
This is why block-zero entries dominate the holder charts on almost every launch worth looking at. If ten wallets bought in the first block, the question is not whether they got a good price, it is how much of the supply left the curve before anyone outside that group could react. Our bundle checker reads that straight off the chain for any mint.
Almost every guide states that a Pump.fun token graduates at a 69,000 dollar market cap. That number is not written anywhere in the program. What the program checks is the token reserve: the curve holds 793,100,000 tokens for sale, and it closes the moment the last one is bought.
Reading a live curve off the chain and working backwards, that point sits at 85.005 SOL of real deposits and 410.88 SOL of market cap. Both are constants. The dollar equivalent is not: at the current SOL price graduation lands at $--.
The 69,000 figure was accurate when SOL traded near 168 dollars, and it has been copied from article to article ever since without anyone rechecking it. If you are sizing a launch against a dollar target, you are aiming at a number that moves every day. Size it in SOL instead.
Multiplying SOL raised by the SOL price is the most common way to guess a Pump.fun market cap, and it is wrong at every point on the curve. At 10 SOL in the curve the shortcut gives $-- against a real $--. At graduation it gives $-- against $--.
The shortcut is linear and the curve is not. Market cap scales with the square of the SOL reserve, so doubling deposits from 10 to 20 SOL raises the cap by 56 percent rather than 100. Any budget built on the linear version, a target entry, an exit level, the size of a multi-wallet buy, comes out four to five times off.
Put the size of your opening position into the second field. What comes back is the market cap your own buy creates before a single outside wallet touches the token, and the share of supply that buy hands you.
Then work the other direction. Pick the cap you want to be trading at, read the milestone panel for the SOL it takes, and remember the figure is total deposits from everyone, your own buy included. Platform fees sit outside the curve entirely, so the SOL that reaches the reserves is slightly less than what leaves the wallet. The fee breakdown has the current numbers and the launch cost guide puts them together with everything else.